Abu dhabi: DMCC on Thursday launched its Future of Trade 2026 report, which found that global trade will remain resilient over the next two years but will be fundamentally reshaped by artificial intelligence, structural tariff volatility, supply chains designed for resilience, and a contest for industrial advantage in critical minerals and infrastructure powering global clean energy and technologies.
According to Emirates News Agency, the report, Future of Trade 2026: Rebuilding Through Rupture, said that more than four in five business leaders surveyed by DMCC expect slow growth, continued supply chain disruption and prolonged geopolitical volatility in the coming years. Almost 12 percent expect a worst-case scenario driven by escalating conflict, tariffs, sanctions, and financial fragmentation. Only 4 percent expect a best-case outcome.
Nearly 20 percent of global merchandise imports are now subject to tariffs or similar restrictions, up from 12.6 percent a year earlier. At the same time, AI is rapidly emerging as the dominant driver of trade growth. Trade in AI-related goods, including semiconductors, servers, and data-center hardware, expanded by more than 20 percent in the first half of 2025, compared with less than 4 percent growth for non-AI goods. AI-related goods account for only 15 percent of global trade by volume, according to the report.
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) estimates that sustained AI-related trade growth could add 0.5 percentage points to global export volumes. The report forecasts merchandise exports to slow to 1.9 percent in 2026, down from 4.6 percent in 2025, before marginally recovering to 2.6 percent in 2027. Services exports are forecast to continue outpacing goods.
Ahmed bin Sulayem, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of DMCC, emphasized the significant role of AI-related goods in global trade growth. He stated, "AI-related goods accounted for 43 percent of global trade growth in the first half of 2025, despite representing just 15 percent of global trade by volume. This underscores where global trade is heading. We are entering a new phase in which competitiveness will be defined not only by cost or geography, but by technology, connectivity, energy access, and the ability to adapt quickly to disruption."
The complexities of the current trade environment were highlighted by Feryal Ahmadi, Deputy CEO and Chief Operating Officer of DMCC, who said, "AI is already improving efficiency across customs, logistics, compliance and trade finance, and we are now moving towards practical, operational deployment. Stablecoins, tokenization and wholesale central bank digital currencies are beginning to support faster and more flexible settlement in certain corridors."
Data regulation, cybersecurity, and digital governance are becoming increasingly important considerations for businesses operating internationally, she added. Ahmadi noted that trade hubs like DMCC play a crucial role in anticipating the needs of global businesses and ensuring they can continue to operate and adapt through periods of disruption and change.
The report identified four structural forces reshaping global commerce: AI moving from experimentation to operational deployment; the breakdown of a stable tariff framework; the shift from efficiency-led to resilience-led supply chains; and the energy transition becoming a contest for industrial and geopolitical advantage. It also highlighted the widening gap between businesses treating AI as a strategic priority and those still running pilots, with fewer than 15 percent of firms surveyed describing their AI deployment as fully integrated.
On tariffs, more than half of respondents now expect trade to become more regional and bloc-based. The report also noted that the "China + 1" diversification model has been overtaken by broader "China + many" strategies in many sectors, with significant increases in US imports from countries like Vietnam, India, and Mexico.
Disruptions in 2026 linked to the Strait of Hormuz underscored the need to rebuild supply chains on more resilient foundations. Clean energy investment reached a record $2.3 trillion in 2025, outpacing fossil fuel investment, with China controlling a significant portion of global sintered permanent magnet production and refining for strategic minerals.
The report pointed to the UAE, India, and Singapore as global 'connectors' capturing redirected trade and investment flows through infrastructure and diversified trade relationships. The Future of Trade 2026 is the sixth and tenth-anniversary edition of DMCC's biennial flagship report, drawing on insights from senior leaders, policymakers, and trade experts.
Source: Emirates News Agency